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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-11
📄 Abstract - V4FinBench: Benchmarking Tabular Foundation Models, LLMs, and Standard Methods on Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction

Corporate bankruptcy prediction is a high-stakes financial task characterized by severe class imbalance and multi-horizon forecasting demands. Public datasets supporting it remain scarce and small: widely used free benchmarks contain between 6,000 and 80,000 company-year observations, while larger resources are behind subscription paywalls. To address this gap, we introduce V4FinBench, a benchmark of over one million company-year records from the Visegràd Group (V4) economies (2006-2021), with 131 financial and non-financial features, six prediction horizons, and a composite distress criterion jointly capturing solvency, profitability, and liquidity deterioration. V4FinBench is designed to support the evaluation of tabular and foundation-model methods under realistic class imbalance, with positive rates between 0.19% and 0.36%. We provide reference evaluations of standard tabular baselines, finetuned TabPFN, and QLoRA-finetuned Llama-3-8B. With imbalance-aware finetuning, TabPFN matches or exceeds gradient boosting at longer time horizons on both $F_1$-score and ROC-AUC. In contrast, Llama-3-8B trails gradient boosting on ROC-AUC at every horizon and is generally weaker on $F_1$-score, with the gap widening sharply beyond the immediate horizon. In an external evaluation on the American Bankruptcy Dataset, the V4FinBench-finetuned TabPFN checkpoint improves over vanilla TabPFN, suggesting that adaptation captures transferable financial-distress structure rather than only V4-specific patterns. V4FinBench is publicly released to support further evaluation and development of prediction methods on realistic financial data.

顶级标签: financial benchmark machine learning
详细标签: corporate bankruptcy prediction class imbalance tabular foundation models llm evaluation transfer learning 或 搜索:

V4FinBench:针对企业破产预测的表格基础模型、大语言模型与标准方法基准测试 / V4FinBench: Benchmarking Tabular Foundation Models, LLMs, and Standard Methods on Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一个包含超过一百万条公司年度记录的大规模公开破产预测基准数据集V4FinBench,并通过实验发现,经过不平衡感知微调的表格基础模型TabPFN在长期预测上能媲美甚至超越传统梯度提升方法,而大语言模型Llama-3-8B在这项任务上整体表现较弱。

源自 arXiv: 2605.10896