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Abstract - Uncertainty-Aware Prediction of Lung Tumor Growth from Sparse Longitudinal CT Data via Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Networks
This work studies lung tumor growth prediction from sparse and irregular longitudinal computed tomography (CT) observations with measurement variability. A Bayesian physics-informed neural network is developed by combining Gompertz growth dynamics with low-dimensional Bayesian inference in the log-volume domain. The framework employs a two-stage inference strategy combining maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling to estimate posterior predictive distributions and uncertainty intervals. The method was evaluated on longitudinal data from the National Lung Screening Trial (30 patients). Results show that the model captures heterogeneous tumor growth patterns while maintaining reasonable prediction accuracy under limited observations. Compared with deterministic modeling approaches, the proposed approach additionally provides calibrated uncertainty estimates. The inferred posterior parameter correlations were consistent with expected biological growth behavior. The proposed framework achieved a cohort-level log-space RMSE of approximately 0.20 together with well-calibrated 95% credible interval coverage across 30 patients. These findings suggest that Bayesian physics-informed modeling may be useful for uncertainty-aware tumor growth assessment when only limited longitudinal follow-up scans are available.
基于贝叶斯物理信息神经网络的稀疏纵向CT数据下的肺癌生长不确定性预测 /
Uncertainty-Aware Prediction of Lung Tumor Growth from Sparse Longitudinal CT Data via Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Networks
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种结合肿瘤生长物理模型和贝叶斯统计方法的深度学习框架,能够从少量、不规则的CT扫描数据中预测肺癌的生长趋势,并同时给出预测结果的可靠置信区间,帮助医生在数据有限时更全面地评估肿瘤变化。