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Abstract - Interpretable Machine Learning for Antepartum Prediction of Pregnancy-Associated Thrombotic Microangiopathy Using Routine Longitudinal Laboratory Data
Background: Pregnancy-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (P-TMA) is rare but life-threatening. Early risk prediction before overt clinical presentation remains challenging, as the associated laboratory abnormalities are subtle, multidimensional, and frequently masked by common physiological changes such as gestational thrombocytopenia and pregnancy-related proteinuria, thus overlapping heavily with benign obstetric and renal conditions. This complexity is poorly captured by univariate or rule-based approaches; however, it is addressable by machine learning, which can extract latent, time-dependent risk signatures from longitudinal clinical tests. Methods: This retrospective study included 300 pregnancies comprising 142 P-TMA cases and 158 controls. After exclusion of identifiers and non-informative variables, 146 longitudinal laboratory predictors were retained. Participants were divided into a training cohort (80%) and a held-out test cohort (20%) using stratified sampling. Five algorithms were evaluated: logistic regression, support vector machine with radial basis function kernel, random forest, extra trees, and gradient boosting. The final model was selected by mean cross-validated AUROC, refitted on the full training cohort, and evaluated once in the held-out test cohort. Interpretability analyses examined global feature importance and distributional patterns of leading predictors. Results: Gradient boosting was prespecified by cross-validation in the training cohort. The model achieved an AUROC of 0.872 (95% CI: 0.769-0.952) and an AUPRC of 0.883 (95% CI: 0.780-0.959) in a held-out test cohort, with sensitivity of 0.750 and specificity of 0.812. Conclusions: Longitudinal clinical laboratory tests obtained during routine care contained informative and clinically plausible signals for P-TMA risk. Notably, cystatin C at week 6 showed promise as an early monitoring indicator.
基于可解释机器学习的妊娠相关血栓性微血管病产前预测:利用常规纵向实验室数据 /
Interpretable Machine Learning for Antepartum Prediction of Pregnancy-Associated Thrombotic Microangiopathy Using Routine Longitudinal Laboratory Data
1️⃣ 一句话总结
该研究利用常规孕期多次实验室检查数据,通过梯度提升机器学习模型,成功实现了对罕见但致命的妊娠相关血栓性微血管病的早期风险预测,其中第6周的胱抑素C水平被认为是一个有潜力的早期监测指标。