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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-14
📄 Abstract - DT-Transformer: A Foundation Model for Disease Trajectory Prediction on a Real-world Health System

Accurate disease trajectory prediction is critical for early intervention, resource allocation, and improving long-term outcomes. While electronic health records (EHRs) provide a rich longitudinal view of patient health in clinical environments, models trained on curated research cohorts may not reflect routine deployment settings, and those trained on single-hospital datasets capture only fragments of each patient's trajectory. This highlights the importance of leveraging large, multi-hospital health systems for training and validation to better reflect real-world clinical complexity. In this work, we develop DT-Transformer, a foundation model trained on 57.1M structured EHR entries over 1.7M patients from Mass General Brigham (MGB), spanning 11 hospitals and a broad network of outpatient clinics. DT-Transformer achieves strong discrimination in both held-out and prospective validation settings. Next-event prediction achieves a median age- and sex-stratified AUC of 0.871 across 896 disease categories, with all categories exceeding AUC 0.5. These results support health system-scale training as a path toward foundation models suited to real-world clinical forecasting.

顶级标签: medical machine learning model training
详细标签: ehr disease trajectory foundation model clinical forecasting next-event prediction 或 搜索:

DT-Transformer:一个基于真实医疗系统的疾病轨迹预测基础模型 / DT-Transformer: A Foundation Model for Disease Trajectory Prediction on a Real-world Health System


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本研究提出了DT-Transformer,这是一个基于170万名患者、5700万条医疗记录(来自11家医院)训练的大模型,能够精准预测未来可能发生的疾病,其预测准确率在所有896种疾病类别上都显著优于随机水平,为真实医疗场景下的疾病走向预测提供了实用工具。

源自 arXiv: 2605.14227