面向非可交换面板数据的在线共形预测 / Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种针对面板数据的在线共形预测方法,通过利用同时观测到的相关单元作为校准集,并结合基于历史相似性的权重和自适应误差水平,有效解决了传统方法在时间依赖和单元异质性下失效的问题,从而在无需严格假设的条件下实现可靠的预测区间覆盖。
Panel data, in which multiple units are repeatedly observed over time, arise throughout science and engineering. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in such settings is challenging because conformal prediction, while distribution-free and model-agnostic, classically relies on exchangeability assumptions that fail under temporal dependence and unit heterogeneity. We propose a simple online conformal framework for non-exchangeable panel data. The method exploits a key feature of online panel prediction: when a forecast is required for one unit, contemporaneous outcomes from related units may already be observed and can serve as a calibration panel. At each round, prediction sets are formed using currently observed calibration units together with two adaptive quantities: history-based similarity weights that emphasize calibration units resembling the target, and an adaptive miscoverage level that is updated whenever target feedback is revealed. This two-state design yields a stepwise coverage bound and a long-run coverage guarantee. Empirically, across synthetic and real panel data sets, the method improves coverage on the worst-covered target units through adaptive interval-width allocation rather than uniform inflation. The two states are complementary: similarity weights protect coverage when target feedback is sparse, while the adaptive level further improves coverage as feedback accumulates.
面向非可交换面板数据的在线共形预测 / Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data
本文提出了一种针对面板数据的在线共形预测方法,通过利用同时观测到的相关单元作为校准集,并结合基于历史相似性的权重和自适应误差水平,有效解决了传统方法在时间依赖和单元异质性下失效的问题,从而在无需严格假设的条件下实现可靠的预测区间覆盖。
源自 arXiv: 2605.17705