菜单

关于 🐙 GitHub
arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-18
📄 Abstract - Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data

Panel data, in which multiple units are repeatedly observed over time, arise throughout science and engineering. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in such settings is challenging because conformal prediction, while distribution-free and model-agnostic, classically relies on exchangeability assumptions that fail under temporal dependence and unit heterogeneity. We propose a simple online conformal framework for non-exchangeable panel data. The method exploits a key feature of online panel prediction: when a forecast is required for one unit, contemporaneous outcomes from related units may already be observed and can serve as a calibration panel. At each round, prediction sets are formed using currently observed calibration units together with two adaptive quantities: history-based similarity weights that emphasize calibration units resembling the target, and an adaptive miscoverage level that is updated whenever target feedback is revealed. This two-state design yields a stepwise coverage bound and a long-run coverage guarantee. Empirically, across synthetic and real panel data sets, the method improves coverage on the worst-covered target units through adaptive interval-width allocation rather than uniform inflation. The two states are complementary: similarity weights protect coverage when target feedback is sparse, while the adaptive level further improves coverage as feedback accumulates.

顶级标签: machine learning model evaluation
详细标签: conformal prediction panel data online learning coverage guarantees adaptive calibration 或 搜索:

面向非可交换面板数据的在线共形预测 / Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种针对面板数据的在线共形预测方法,通过利用同时观测到的相关单元作为校准集,并结合基于历史相似性的权重和自适应误差水平,有效解决了传统方法在时间依赖和单元异质性下失效的问题,从而在无需严格假设的条件下实现可靠的预测区间覆盖。

源自 arXiv: 2605.17705