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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-19
📄 Abstract - Probabilistic Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Diffusion Copulas

Accurately assessing financial risk requires capturing both individual asset volatility and the complex, asymmetric dependence structures that emerge during extreme market events. While modern diffusion-based models have advanced multivariate forecasting, they often suffer from a "normality bias" when trained end-to-end, sacrificing marginal calibration for joint coherence and consistently underestimating tail risk. To address this, we propose a Diffusion-Copula framework that explicitly decouples the learning of marginal distributions from their dependence structure. We employ deep Mixture Density Networks to capture heavy-tailed asset dynamics, followed by a Classification-Diffusion Copula to model the joint dependence. Applied to cryptocurrency markets, our approach demonstrates superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines in forecasting systemic extremes of both marginal and joint events. Crucially, we demonstrate that while baseline models classify simultaneous market crashes as statistically impossible "Black Swans" (high surprise), our framework identifies them as "Expected Crashes" (low surprise), successfully preserving the correlation structure necessary for robust risk management during contagion events.

顶级标签: financial machine learning model training
详细标签: time series forecasting diffusion model copula tail risk 或 搜索:

基于扩散Copula的概率多变量时间序列预测 / Probabilistic Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Diffusion Copulas


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种名为扩散Copula的框架,通过将资产收益的个体波动规律与它们之间的复杂相关结构分开学习,解决了现有模型在极端市场条件下低估尾部风险的“正常性偏差”问题,并在加密货币市场中实现了更准确的危机预测。

源自 arXiv: 2605.19685