菜单

关于 🐙 GitHub
arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-19
📄 Abstract - CASCADE Conformal Prediction: Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support

Effective medication management in Parkinson's Disease (PD) is challenging due to heterogeneous disease progression, variable patient response, and medication side effects. While AI models can forecast levodopa equivalent daily dose (LEDD) as a measure of medication needs, standard uncertainty quantification often fails to communicate the reliability of these predictions, treating high and low confidence clinical decisions identically. We introduce CASCADE (Calibrated Adaptive Scaling via Conformal And Distributional Estimation), a novel conformal prediction framework that propagates epistemic uncertainty from a screening classifier to adapt downstream predictions. Unlike standard conformal methods that rely on auxiliary residual regression, we leverage epistemic uncertainty from a primary classification task (identifying whether a medication change is needed) to dynamically scale the prediction intervals of a secondary regression task (predicting how much change). By mapping Venn-Abers multi-probabilistic uncertainty directly to non-conformity scores, our framework achieves continuous risk adaptation. We demonstrate that this ``cascade effect'' produces highly efficient intervals for confident patients (38.9% narrower than standard conformal baselines) while automatically expanding intervals to ensure robust coverage for uncertain cases, bridging the gap between discrete clinical decision-making and continuous dose forecasting in PD.

顶级标签: medical machine learning
详细标签: conformal prediction uncertainty quantification clinical decision support parkinson's disease prediction intervals 或 搜索:

级联保形预测:面向两阶段临床决策支持的不确定性自适应预测区间 / CASCADE Conformal Prediction: Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种名为CASCADE的智能预测方法,通过先判断帕金森病患者是否需要调整药物,再根据判断的置信度动态调整药物剂量的预测范围,使得模型在确定情况下给出更精确的建议,而在不确定时自动放宽范围以保持可靠性,从而更好地辅助临床决策。

源自 arXiv: 2605.20468