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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-20
📄 Abstract - Training distribution determines the ceiling of drug-blind cancer sensitivity prediction

Precision oncology requires predicting which drugs will suppress a specific tumor from its molecular profile, but drug-blind sensitivity prediction has plateaued despite increasingly complex drug representations. Here we show that this stagnation reflects a metric artifact rather than a representational bottleneck. The standard benchmark, global Pearson r, is dominated by between-drug potency differences that a trivial drug-mean predictor captures without any cell-specific learning. Per-drug Pearson r, which isolates within-drug cell ranking, reveals that no drug encoding improves over cell-only features across four independent datasets. A controlled experiment channeling mechanism-of-action identity as either a drug feature or a training-distribution constraint identifies the cause. Supplying MoA as a feature yields negligible benefit, whereas using it to stratify training raises per-drug r substantially for targeted kinase inhibitors, because pan-cancer co-training suppresses pathway-specific sensitivity signals. Mechanism-stratified training and response matching from pilot observations provide two deployable strategies that together recover the principal sources of predictive gain in drug-blind sensitivity prediction.

顶级标签: medical machine learning model evaluation
详细标签: precision oncology drug sensitivity prediction benchmark training distribution drug-blind prediction 或 搜索:

训练分布决定了药物盲癌症敏感性预测的上限 / Training distribution determines the ceiling of drug-blind cancer sensitivity prediction


1️⃣ 一句话总结

该研究发现,当前药物盲癌症敏感性预测的性能瓶颈并非来自药物表征的不足,而是由于标准评估指标被药物间效力差异主导所致;通过按药物作用机制分层训练,可以显著提升对同类靶向药物的敏感性预测准确度。

源自 arXiv: 2605.20885