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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-20
📄 Abstract - Neural Negative Binomial Regression for Weekly Seismicity Forecasting: Per-Cell Dispersion Estimation and Tail Risk Assessment

Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from Central Asia (2010-2024), where a likelihood-ratio test with boundary correction strongly rejects the Poisson hypothesis (p < 10^{-179}). The main contribution of this work is the EarthquakeNet architecture, which provides an endogenous per-cell estimate of the overdispersion parameter alpha via a neural network (spatial embeddings + MLP), without explicit spatial covariance specification. In contrast to existing negative binomial regression approaches in seismological forecasting, which typically assume a single global alpha, the proposed per-cell formulation allows the model to identify spatial heterogeneity in seismic clustering and to construct probabilistic risk-aware alerts via quantiles of the predicted distribution. A walk-forward evaluation (2018-2023) over four systems shows an 8.6 percent reduction in mean pinball deviation (MPD) relative to a negative binomial GLM baseline. The strongest improvements are observed in the tail regime (Y >= 5), where the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) of the proposed model is 12.5 percent lower than that of the baseline, indicating improved calibration in extreme-event forecasting.

顶级标签: machine learning multi-modal
详细标签: earthquake forecasting negative binomial regression deep learning tail risk assessment spatial modeling 或 搜索:

基于神经负二项回归的每周地震预测:逐网格离散度估计与尾部风险评估 / Neural Negative Binomial Regression for Weekly Seismicity Forecasting: Per-Cell Dispersion Estimation and Tail Risk Assessment


1️⃣ 一句话总结

该研究提出了一种名为EarthquakeNet的神经网络模型,能够在空间网格上逐点估计地震活动的离散程度,从而更准确地预测每周地震次数,尤其显著提升了对五次以上地震等极端事件的预测效果,并通过分析中亚十年地震数据验证了其优越性。

源自 arXiv: 2605.21437