因果方法在大型语言模型开发与评估中的应用 / Causal methods for LLM development and evaluation
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文指出,大型语言模型的开发与评估中许多关键问题(如数据混合效果、偏好评估偏差、模型路由选择等)本质上属于因果关系问题,而当前基于纯预测的方法容易受到数据偏差和环境变化的影响,因此作者系统阐述了如何利用因果推断方法(如干预效应估计、去混杂等)来提升模型开发过程的可靠性和科学性。
Large language model (LLM) development is currently driven by large-scale empirical iteration over data mixtures, reward models, routing strategies, and evaluation pipelines. Here, we argue that many central questions in LLM development and evaluation are inherently causal: What is the effect of adding a data domain during pretraining? How do annotator preferences change when LLMs generate text in a different style? Should a prompt be routed to a larger or smaller model given inference cost constraints? In general, causal methods are well-suited to such settings where interventions change outcomes but, surprisingly, are underrepresented in LLM development. Our contribution is threefold: (1) We explain how causal methods can help develop modern LLM development and evaluation: LLM development relies heavily on logged data, which are often subject to confounding and distribution shifts; evaluation uses learned but potentially biased judges; and deployment environments are non-stationary. These conditions make purely predictive approaches fragile and create opportunities for principled identification and estimation methods from causal inference. (2) We further map opportunities for causal methods in the entire LLM development pipeline, including pretraining, alignment, routing, agentic workflows, and evaluation. (3) We discuss new research opportunities around leveraging causal methods for LLM development and evaluation. Overall, we argue that causal methods are potentially underutilized for the LLM development and evaluation pipeline, despite the fact that such methods can ensure a reliable and scientifically grounded design.
因果方法在大型语言模型开发与评估中的应用 / Causal methods for LLM development and evaluation
本文指出,大型语言模型的开发与评估中许多关键问题(如数据混合效果、偏好评估偏差、模型路由选择等)本质上属于因果关系问题,而当前基于纯预测的方法容易受到数据偏差和环境变化的影响,因此作者系统阐述了如何利用因果推断方法(如干预效应估计、去混杂等)来提升模型开发过程的可靠性和科学性。
源自 arXiv: 2605.25998