REGAIN:基于协调增益的辅助方向学习 / REGAIN: REconciliation GAIN-driven Auxiliary Direction Learning
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种名为REGAIN的框架,通过自动学习并引入额外的线性测量方向来改进预测协调过程,这些方向能够有效捕捉原始测量系统未覆盖的残余不确定性,从而提升最终协调预测的准确性。
Forecast reconciliation usually starts from a fixed measurement system and asks how forecasts should be projected onto a coherent space. We ask a different question: which additional linear measurements should be forecast and included in the reconciliation system? We propose REGAIN, a reconciliation-gain framework that learns normalized auxiliary directions, forecasts the induced series with a frozen forecasting oracle, and selects directions by their target-weighted loss reduction after augmented generalized least-squares reconciliation. Unlike variance-based components or predictability-based auxiliary selection, REGAIN optimizes the downstream effect of an auxiliary measurement on the final reconciled forecasts. We provide a statistical characterization showing that useful auxiliary directions must provide complementary information about unresolved target uncertainty, rather than merely being easy to forecast. The analysis also clarifies the covariance-risk reduction mechanism, the role of bias changes in realized quadratic risk, and the stability of estimated gain signals. A stagewise learning algorithm with held-out gain screening is developed, together with an optional joint refinement step. Experiments on Beijing PM2.5 and Australian Tourism data show that gain-selected measurements can improve both ordinary multivariate and hierarchical forecasts, especially when they reveal residual uncertainty not captured by the original measurement system.
REGAIN:基于协调增益的辅助方向学习 / REGAIN: REconciliation GAIN-driven Auxiliary Direction Learning
本文提出了一种名为REGAIN的框架,通过自动学习并引入额外的线性测量方向来改进预测协调过程,这些方向能够有效捕捉原始测量系统未覆盖的残余不确定性,从而提升最终协调预测的准确性。
源自 arXiv: 2606.04380