基于时变干预的流行病时间序列反事实预测基准测试 / Benchmarking Counterfactual Prediction in Epidemic Time Series with Time-Varying Interventions
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文构建了一个基于美国真实数据(人口、流动、流行病和政策)模拟的大规模基准测试平台,用于评估在静态和动态干预下预测“如果采取不同措施会怎样”的因果推断方法,并揭示了现有方法在复杂现实场景中的显著性能差异。
Deep learning has enabled significant advances in time-series causal inference, yet progress remains constrained by the lack of realistic benchmarks with observable counterfactual outcomes. Existing datasets either rely on real-world observations without ground-truth counterfactuals or on simplified simulations that fail to capture complex causal dynamics. To address this gap, we develop a large-scale benchmark for counterfactual prediction in epidemic time series under dynamic interventions. Unlike existing benchmarks, it supports static and time-varying treatments, as well as both single-policy and multi-policy intervention settings, enabling evaluation of causal inference methods across a broad range of causal inference scenarios. Leveraging a calibrated agent-based model grounded in real-world demographic, mobility, epidemiological, and policy data, we generate realistic counterfactual trajectories across more than 150 U.S. counties. Using this benchmark, we evaluate widely used and state-of-the-art causal inference methods, revealing substantial performance differences and highlighting the challenges of realistic time-series causal reasoning.
基于时变干预的流行病时间序列反事实预测基准测试 / Benchmarking Counterfactual Prediction in Epidemic Time Series with Time-Varying Interventions
本文构建了一个基于美国真实数据(人口、流动、流行病和政策)模拟的大规模基准测试平台,用于评估在静态和动态干预下预测“如果采取不同措施会怎样”的因果推断方法,并揭示了现有方法在复杂现实场景中的显著性能差异。
源自 arXiv: 2606.05692