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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-06-04
📄 Abstract - Design a Reliable LLM-Integrated Interface for Mortality Forecasting

Mortality forecasting plays an important role in actuarial and policy decision-making, but its implementation remains technically complex and inaccessible to non-expert users. This project proposes a reliable large language model (LLM)-integrated interface that improves usability while maintaining statistical power. The LLM is designed as a constrained orchestration layer that translates natural-language inputs into structured configurations for a deterministic forecasting pipeline. A three-phase methodology is employed to ensure accuracy, usability, and transparency. First, a baseline pipeline is implemented using the CoMoMo package, reproducing established mortality forecasting results. Second, the pipeline is extended to generate multi-step forecasts using rolling-origin evaluation and mean squared error (MSE). Third, a prototype interface uses a local LLM to handle users' forecasting requests in plain language. The system demonstrates that LLMs can enhance accessibility without compromising reproducibility, transparency, or actuarial validity in high-stakes analytical workflows.

顶级标签: llm medical systems
详细标签: mortality forecasting user interface evaluation actuarial 或 搜索:

面向死亡率预测的可靠大语言模型集成接口设计 / Design a Reliable LLM-Integrated Interface for Mortality Forecasting


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种将大语言模型作为“约束层”的接口方法,让非专业人士能用自然语言进行死亡率预测,同时通过固定计算流程和分阶段验证,确保结果的可靠性、可重复性和专业严谨性。

源自 arXiv: 2606.06235