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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-06-08
📄 Abstract - FAME: Forecastability-Aware Mixture of Experts for Heterogeneous Time Series Forecasting

Large-scale retail and industrial forecasting systems contain many heterogeneous time series whose lifecycle, sparsity, volatility, seasonality, spectral patterns, and contextual sensitivity differ substantially. A single forecasting model rarely performs well across all regimes, while dense ensembles increase inference cost and provide limited insight into expert suitability. This paper studies forecastability-aware expert routing: learning how data characteristics determine the suitability of forecasting experts. We propose \method{}, a sparse mixture-of-experts framework that represents each series with a multidimensional forecastability fingerprint, mines expert-suitability targets from validation performance, and trains a cost-aware sparse router to activate a small budgeted set of experts for each series. Using a production-scale vending-machine sales dataset from Shandong New Beiyang (SNBC), where the forecasting component has been integrated into the replenishment-planning pipeline, together with public retail benchmarks, we show that expert suitability varies systematically across data regimes. On the industrial dataset with 5,000+ machines and 60M+ transactions, \method{} Top-2 reduces MSE by 12.4\% over the strongest single expert, LightGBM, while executing 1.92 experts per series on average. The deployed component produces demand forecasts, while inventory-oriented gains are estimated by an offline replay simulator under a fixed replenishment policy rather than by online intervention. The framework turns heterogeneous sales forecasting from heuristic model selection into data mining of forecastability patterns and expert specialization. Code is available at this https URL

顶级标签: machine learning systems
详细标签: time series forecasting mixture of experts forecastability expert routing retail demand forecasting 或 搜索:

FAME:面向异构时间序列预测的可预测性感知混合专家模型 / FAME: Forecastability-Aware Mixture of Experts for Heterogeneous Time Series Forecasting


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种名为FAME的稀疏混合专家框架,通过分析每个时间序列的多维“可预测性指纹”来智能选择最合适的预测模型,从而在大规模零售和工业数据中显著提升预测精度,同时降低计算成本。

源自 arXiv: 2606.08896