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Abstract - Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation
Conformal Bayes combines Bayesian posterior predictives with conformal calibration to produce prediction sets that are both statistically valid and geometrically efficient. We study conformal Bayes under label shift from a unified perspective, identifying two complementary approaches that restore nominal target-domain coverage through importance-weighted conformal calibration but operate through independent mechanisms. \emph{Post-hoc calibration} tilts the posterior predictive toward the target domain and corrects the conformal threshold via an importance-weighted quantile, leaving the parameter posterior unchanged. \emph{In-training adaptation} tilts the parameter posterior itself to the target domain, producing a corrected predictive whose highest predictive density region serves as the highest predictive density (HPD) based prediction set under the fitted target predictive; efficiency is model-dependent and does not imply finite-sample conditional optimality. Two controlled experiments show that in an unbiased training regime both strategies achieve valid coverage equally, while in a lead-optimization regime in-training adaptation acts as a debiasing operator, reducing interval width at unchanged coverage.
标签偏移下的共形贝叶斯方法:事后校准与训练内适应 /
Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文对比了在训练数据与目标数据标签分布不同(标签偏移)时,两种改进共形贝叶斯预测集的方法:一种是在模型训练后调整预测结果和阈值(事后校准),另一种是在训练过程中直接调整模型参数(训练内适应),实验表明两者都能保证预测覆盖的准确性,且后者在某些情况下能更有效地缩小预测区间。