一次性完成:基于均衡状态估计的可扩展同步预测方法 / Once-for-All: Scalable Simultaneous Forecasting via Equilibrium State Estimation
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种名为均衡状态估计(ESE)的新方法,能够一次性同步预测多个相互关联的系统(如汇率或疫情扩散),在保证预测精度与现有最佳方法相当的前提下,计算速度提升10到70倍,并且随着系统数量增加,其效率优势更加明显。
We introduce Equilibrium State Estimation (ESE), a novel paradigm for simultaneous prediction, where multiple interacting systems require separate yet coordinated forecasts. Such scenarios often arise in real-world settings such as economics and healthcare modeling. Unlike existing approaches that predict one system at a time, ESE forecasts all systems in a single pass. It first estimates the equilibrium state across systems, then generates holistic forecasts based on the difference between the current state and the estimated equilibrium. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including currency exchange and COVID-19 spread modeling, demonstrate that ESE is at least as accurate as state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods while being significantly faster. In addition, ESE integrates seamlessly with conventional predictors, combining their accuracy with its exceptional efficiency and delivering a 10-70x speedup. With linear-time complexity, ESE scales far better than SOTA methods as the number of systems increases. Moreover, it remains accurate under diverse perturbations, establishing ESE as a fast, generalizable, robust, and scalable multi-prediction method.
一次性完成:基于均衡状态估计的可扩展同步预测方法 / Once-for-All: Scalable Simultaneous Forecasting via Equilibrium State Estimation
本文提出了一种名为均衡状态估计(ESE)的新方法,能够一次性同步预测多个相互关联的系统(如汇率或疫情扩散),在保证预测精度与现有最佳方法相当的前提下,计算速度提升10到70倍,并且随着系统数量增加,其效率优势更加明显。
源自 arXiv: 2606.13285