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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-06-16
📄 Abstract - ConTex: Reformulating Counterfactual Generation For Time Series Forecasting

Decision-making with deep learning-based time series forecasting requires not only accurate predictions but also actionable insights. However, current architectures do not inherently provide such information. Specifically, guidance is needed on how current conditions must be modified to shift from a predicted outcome to a desired future scenario. Counterfactual explanations provide a natural framework for this task, as they represent minimal input changes that alter the model's prediction, indicating when and how intervention is required. Existing approaches rely on instance-wise optimization, leading to inconsistency across instances, high computational costs, and limited applicability in real-time settings. To address these limitations, we reformulate counterfactual generation for time series forecasting as the problem of learning a globally consistent intervention strategy, allowing counterfactuals to be generated through a single shared function. We propose Counterfactual Time Series Explanations (ConTex), a model-agnostic, decomposed architecture comprising a temporal context encoder and a conditional encoder, followed by two heads that capture interventions in terms of temporal relevance and modification strength. This structure overcomes the instability and inconsistency of instance-based approaches by producing targeted, interpretable interventions across time and feature dimensions in a single forward pass, making it suitable for real-time applications. Across multiple forecasting architectures and benchmark datasets, ConTex achieves state-of-the-art validity while generating sparse counterfactuals that minimize the number of necessary interventions. Additionally, our approach reduces computational cost by at least 12-36x compared to instance-wise generation and supports real-time inference at approximately 0.007 seconds.

顶级标签: machine learning model evaluation
详细标签: time series counterfactual explanations forecasting interventions real-time 或 搜索:

重新表述反事实生成用于时间序列预测 / ConTex: Reformulating Counterfactual Generation For Time Series Forecasting


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种名为ConTex的新方法,通过一个统一的深度学习模型,快速生成时间序列预测的“反事实解释”——即指出如何最小限度改变当前输入条件(如哪些时间点和特征需要调整),才能让预测结果从不良状态转向期望目标,相比现有方法速度提升12倍以上且结果更稳定,适合实时场景使用。

源自 arXiv: 2606.18049