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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-06-21
📄 Abstract - Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection via Target-Membership Scores

Conformal selection aims to identify test candidates whose unknown responses fall in a target region while controlling the false discovery rate. Existing methods often inherit prediction-oriented nonconformity scores, such as residual or clipped residual scores, from conformal prediction. We argue that the natural score for selection is instead the target-membership probability. This score directly addresses the binary event being selected, and any monotone transform of it gives the Neyman--Pearson oracle ranking at a fixed null selection level. This distinction is irrelevant for mean-monotone targets, where conventional scores induce essentially the same ranking, but becomes important for interval-valued, variance-driven, multimodal, or multi-condition targets, where prediction-oriented scores can be misaligned with selection power. We study membership-score-based conformal selection and isolate one conformal calibration route, Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection (NCCS), which ranks test scores against confirmed non-target calibration examples. Under null exchangeability, NCCS yields finite-sample valid null p-values, which can be combined with BY under arbitrary dependence or with BH under standard positive-dependence conditions. Experiments support the score principle: membership scores match conventional scores on mean-monotone targets, substantially improve over mean-score selection on variance-driven targets, and, when calibrated by NCCS, trade power for finite-sample null validity in rare-target regimes where direct empirical-FDP thresholding can be anti-conservative.

顶级标签: machine learning systems
详细标签: conformal selection false discovery rate nonconformity scores membership scores p-values 或 搜索:

基于目标成员分数的零校准保形选择方法 / Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection via Target-Membership Scores


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出一种新的保形选择方法,通过使用直接衡量测试样本是否属于目标区域的'目标成员分数'来代替传统基于预测误差的分数,并结合零校准技术精确控制错误发现率,在复杂目标(如区间、多峰等)上比传统方法更有效。

源自 arXiv: 2606.22336