UC-Search:面向延迟约束时间序列控制的风险感知测试时搜索 / UC-Search: Risk-Aware Test-Time Search for Delayed Constrained Time-Series Control
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种名为UC-Search的通用方法,在模型预测后加入一个考虑风险和约束的搜索步骤,帮助系统在信息延迟和条件限制下做出更优的实时决策,并通过大量实验证明其相比现有方法能显著提升控制效果。
Time-series models are usually scored as forecasters, yet deployed systems often require delayed decisions under uncertainty and hard feasibility constraints. UC-Search is a model-agnostic test-time wrapper: a backbone emits forecasts or action scores, a feasibility automaton rolls candidate paths forward, and bounded search returns the first action of a risk-adjusted feasible trajectory. We instantiate UC-Beam and a UCT-style UC-MCTS diagnostic, using epistemic, aleatoric, and propagated uncertainty mainly as path-risk terms. A myopic-collapse/separation theorem states when search reduces to one-step risk-greedy and when delayed feasible-set coupling can create non-myopic value. Primary evidence comes from a predeclared public $9$-family, $33$-series delayed-control suite with six held-out starts per series: UC-Pareto is positive versus validation-selected CEM, MPPI, and risk-aware random at the normalized threshold ($+3.1675/+2.3328/+2.5038$), and remains positive in a compute-matched audit ($+2.8466/+2.7418/+2.7429$). ETT/LTSF delayed-inventory validation supports the same compute-frontier claim. A 48-series raw M4 standard periodic-review lost-sales inventory audit is positive versus the strongest classic base-stock control ($+13556.7547$), CEM ($+64900.2207$), and risk-random ($+52881.6042$), while MPPI remains family-mixed. FI-2010, official-forecast adapters, SB3/FQI controls, direction/capacity/intervention checks, and synthetic mechanism tests are reported as boundary or mechanism evidence rather than broad dominance claims.
UC-Search:面向延迟约束时间序列控制的风险感知测试时搜索 / UC-Search: Risk-Aware Test-Time Search for Delayed Constrained Time-Series Control
本文提出了一种名为UC-Search的通用方法,在模型预测后加入一个考虑风险和约束的搜索步骤,帮助系统在信息延迟和条件限制下做出更优的实时决策,并通过大量实验证明其相比现有方法能显著提升控制效果。
源自 arXiv: 2606.25274