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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-06-29
📄 Abstract - Sample-Efficient Learning of Probabilistic Causes for Reachability in Markov Decision Processes with Probabilistic Guarantees

Probabilistic model checking for Markov decision processes (MDPs) provides quantitative guarantees, but often offers limited insight into why undesired outcomes occur. Probability-raising (PR) causality addresses this by identifying states whose visitation increases the probability of reaching designated states. Existing PR-cause identification methods, however, use MDP modifications not well-suited for learning: the gap between conditional and unconditional reachability probabilities can be hard to detect from transition samples, and construction requires reachability probabilities of the MDP, which are unavailable when transition probabilities are unknown. We study unknown MDPs and propose a learning approach with probabilistic guarantees for PR-cause identification. Our key ingredient is a restart-based MDP modification that reduces PR-cause checking to two conditional reachability queries without using reachability values of the original MDP. We prove correctness, establish sample-complexity bounds, and develop an anytime learning-and-checking algorithm based on two-sided value iteration that progressively classifies states as causal, non-causal, or undecided. Experiments on two benchmarks demonstrate reliable and fast identification of PR causes.

顶级标签: reinforcement learning model evaluation machine learning
详细标签: causality markov decision processes reachability sample complexity probabilistic guarantees 或 搜索:

马尔可夫决策过程中可达性概率原因的高效学习与概率保证 / Sample-Efficient Learning of Probabilistic Causes for Reachability in Markov Decision Processes with Probabilistic Guarantees


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种新方法,能够在未知转移概率的马尔可夫决策过程中,通过采样高效地识别那些会显著增加特定状态出现概率的“原因状态”,并给识别结果提供概率上的可靠性保证,从而帮助人们理解复杂系统中的异常结果是如何产生的。

源自 arXiv: 2606.29681