基于核密度估计的模型校准中的带宽选择方法 / Bandwidth Selection in Kernel Density Estimation for Model Calibration
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种名为“风险对齐”的新方法,通过让核密度估计重构的风险与实际风险相匹配,来自动选择最优带宽,从而更可靠地评估深度学习模型预测的置信度是否准确。
As deep learning models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes applications, providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates has become as critical as achieving high predictive accuracy. While Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) has emerged as a smooth and continuous alternative to traditional binning for quantifying miscalibration, its reliability is heavily dependent on the choice of the kernel bandwidth. Standard selection techniques, such as Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), often fail to produce optimal bandwidths for calibration tasks. In this work, we introduce Risk Alignment (RA), a novel optimization framework that determines the optimal bandwidth by aligning KDE-reconstructed risk with empirical risk. We theoretically demonstrate that this alignment minimizes calibration estimation bias across the data distribution, establishing a principled bandwidth selection criterion applicable to various metrics, including the challenging case of canonical calibration error. Extensive experiments across multiple architectures and datasets show that RA consistently outperforms standard bandwidth selection methods, yielding more reliable calibration assessments.
基于核密度估计的模型校准中的带宽选择方法 / Bandwidth Selection in Kernel Density Estimation for Model Calibration
本文提出了一种名为“风险对齐”的新方法,通过让核密度估计重构的风险与实际风险相匹配,来自动选择最优带宽,从而更可靠地评估深度学习模型预测的置信度是否准确。
源自 arXiv: 2606.29925