基于利润的反事实解释用于产品改进:以日本漫画销售为例 / Profit-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Product Improvement: A Case Study of Manga Sales in Japan
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种新的反事实解释方法(PBCE),它不再需要人为设定目标值或距离函数,而是直接以最大化利润为目标,将修改产品属性的成本作为优化依据,从而帮助企业更有效地改进产品决策,并以日本漫画销量数据验证了其有效性。
Counterfactual explanation (CE) is widely used to enhance the interpretability of machine learning models and support data-driven decision-making based on model predictions. However, existing CE methods typically require two exogenously specified inputs: a desired output value (target) and a distance function that quantifies changes in explanatory variables. In regression settings, neither the validity of target specification nor the practical interpretation of the distance metric has been sufficiently addressed. Furthermore, most existing CE methods focus on altering predictions rather than optimizing a decision objective, even though real-world decision-making often requires explicit objective maximization. To address these limitations, we formulate CE as a profit maximization problem in management and marketing contexts and propose a framework termed profit-based counterfactual explanation (PBCE). PBCE eliminates the need for exogenous target specification by directly maximizing profit as the primary optimization objective. Concurrently, the distance term is reinterpreted as the cost of modifying product attributes, providing a clear and economically grounded interpretation.
基于利润的反事实解释用于产品改进:以日本漫画销售为例 / Profit-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Product Improvement: A Case Study of Manga Sales in Japan
本文提出了一种新的反事实解释方法(PBCE),它不再需要人为设定目标值或距离函数,而是直接以最大化利润为目标,将修改产品属性的成本作为优化依据,从而帮助企业更有效地改进产品决策,并以日本漫画销量数据验证了其有效性。
源自 arXiv: 2607.01610