多样证据带来更优预测:信息不对称下的多智能体协商 / Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种名为InfoDelphi的多智能体协商框架,通过给不同AI智能体分配不同的证据信息(部分共享、部分独有),让它们在讨论中交换独特见解,从而显著提升未来事件预测的准确性和可靠性,在真实预测市场数据集上比现有方法提升12%至18%。
Multi-agent systems are increasingly used for forecasting future events, as deliberation among multiple LLMs is believed to improve reasoning and calibration. Yet existing approaches overlook a critical design choice: what information each agent receives. When all agents are given identical evidence, deliberation collapses into herding rather than genuine belief revision, leaving multi-agent systems little better than a single agent. We identify this as a fundamental gap and propose designed information asymmetry to close it: by partitioning evidence into shared public and disjoint private subsets, each agent holds exclusive knowledge that can only reach others through deliberation. We theoretically show that this decomposition reduces inter-agent error correlation, and instantiate it in InfoDelphi, a framework combining relevance-aware evidence routing, rationale-based iterative deliberation, and confidence-weighted aggregation. On PolyGym, a benchmark of 375 binary forecasting questions derived from real-world prediction markets, InfoDelphi outperforms the strongest single-agent and multi-agent baselines by 12--18% in Brier score and 4--8 percentage points in accuracy. More detailed experiments confirm that removing information asymmetry eliminates most deliberation gains, establishing diversity of input as the key enabler of effective multi-agent reasoning.
多样证据带来更优预测:信息不对称下的多智能体协商 / Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry
本文提出了一种名为InfoDelphi的多智能体协商框架,通过给不同AI智能体分配不同的证据信息(部分共享、部分独有),让它们在讨论中交换独特见解,从而显著提升未来事件预测的准确性和可靠性,在真实预测市场数据集上比现有方法提升12%至18%。
源自 arXiv: 2607.01661