单变量时间序列的自相关函数及其他特征重要性度量方法 / Autorelevance function and other feature relevance measures for univariate time series
1️⃣ 一句话总结
该论文提出了一种不依赖具体模型的通用方法,利用幽灵变量和沙普利值等框架来计算时间序列中不同时间滞后值的重要性,从而帮助理解预测模型关注哪些历史信息,并通过模拟和真实数据验证了其有效性。
We propose a model agnostic methodology to measure lag relevance in machine learning forecasting models applied to univariate time series. Particularly, we are working in the context of time series using the frameworks of Ghost variables and Shapley values, together with additive importance measures, to introduce the auto-relevance and partial auto-relevance functions as the lag importance values. Additionally, we propose a novel method to replace absent features in coalition based methods with a one step forecast from the same model. We evaluate these proposals under different simulations and real data cases. This combined framework perspective is particularly suitable for time series. In addition, to show our discoveries we use a pull of models from the seasonal ARMA family and recurrent neural networks. We found that the calculated relevance measures successfully demonstrate the expected lag structure in almost all cases.
单变量时间序列的自相关函数及其他特征重要性度量方法 / Autorelevance function and other feature relevance measures for univariate time series
该论文提出了一种不依赖具体模型的通用方法,利用幽灵变量和沙普利值等框架来计算时间序列中不同时间滞后值的重要性,从而帮助理解预测模型关注哪些历史信息,并通过模拟和真实数据验证了其有效性。
源自 arXiv: 2607.01959