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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-07-02
📄 Abstract - Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metrics

Low-voltage load forecasting is an important component in current and future energy systems with a high degree of electrification and decentralized generation. However, current forecasting methods require significant manual effort, often lack uncertainty estimation and proper peak prediction, and they are often not adequately evaluated in terms of grid requirements. In the present study, we provide an extensive evaluation of short-term net load forecasts of 200 real-world low-voltage feeders with a focus on the rapidly evolving time series foundation models. Our study compares Chronos-Bolt, Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS to six baseline models and demonstrates superior performance, in particular for Chronos-2. An ablation study, in which weather covariates are omitted, shows that time series foundation models adapt to increased uncertainty, despite the importance of weather information. A novel application-oriented metric links the model's forecasting capabilities in peak prediction to the trade-off in grid asset planning and operation between cost reduction and minimizing the risk of failure.

顶级标签: machine learning model evaluation energy
详细标签: time series forecasting foundation models peak load prediction uncertainty estimation application-oriented metrics 或 搜索:

基于时间序列基础模型的概率低压峰值负荷预测及其面向应用的指标评估 / Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metrics


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文对比了多种低压电网短期净负荷预测模型,发现时间序列基础模型(特别是Chronos-2)在峰值预测和不确定性量化上优于传统方法,并引入了一个新型评估指标,帮助电网规划者平衡成本与风险。

源自 arXiv: 2607.01966