电动汽车能源需求预测及联邦学习的影响研究 / On Electric Vehicle Energy Demand Forecasting and the Effect of Federated Learning
1️⃣ 一句话总结
这篇论文通过比较多种预测模型,发现梯度提升树(XGBoost)在预测电动汽车充电桩的能源需求时最准确高效,并指出结合联邦学习可以在保护用户隐私的同时,实现不错的预测效果,为分散式能源管理提供了新思路。
The wide spread of new energy resources, smart devices, and demand side management strategies has motivated several analytics operations, from infrastructure load modeling to user behavior profiling. Energy Demand Forecasting (EDF) of Electric Vehicle Supply Equipments (EVSEs) is one of the most critical operations for ensuring efficient energy management and sustainability, since it enables utility providers to anticipate energy/power demand, optimize resource allocation, and implement proactive measures to improve grid reliability. However, accurate EDF is a challenging problem due to external factors, such as the varying user routines, weather conditions, driving behaviors, unknown state of charge, etc. Furthermore, as concerns and restrictions about privacy and sustainability have grown, training data has become increasingly fragmented, resulting in distributed datasets scattered across different data silos and/or edge devices, calling for federated learning solutions. In this paper, we investigate different well-established time series forecasting methodologies to address the EDF problem, from statistical methods (the ARIMA family) to traditional machine learning models (such as XGBoost) and deep neural networks (GRU and LSTM). We provide an overview of these methods through a performance comparison over four real-world EVSE datasets, evaluated under both centralized and federated learning paradigms, focusing on the trade-offs between forecasting fidelity, privacy preservation, and energy overheads. Our experimental results demonstrate, on the one hand, the superiority of gradient boosted trees (XGBoost) over statistical and NN-based models in both prediction accuracy and energy efficiency and, on the other hand, an insight that Federated Learning-enabled models balance these factors, offering a promising direction for decentralized energy demand forecasting.
电动汽车能源需求预测及联邦学习的影响研究 / On Electric Vehicle Energy Demand Forecasting and the Effect of Federated Learning
这篇论文通过比较多种预测模型,发现梯度提升树(XGBoost)在预测电动汽车充电桩的能源需求时最准确高效,并指出结合联邦学习可以在保护用户隐私的同时,实现不错的预测效果,为分散式能源管理提供了新思路。
源自 arXiv: 2602.20782