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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-02
📄 Abstract - LOCUS: A Distribution-Free Loss-Quantile Score for Risk-Aware Predictions

Modern machine learning models can be accurate on average yet still make mistakes that dominate deployment cost. We introduce Locus, a distribution-free wrapper that produces a per-input loss-scale reliability score for a fixed prediction function. Rather than quantifying uncertainty about the label, Locus models the realized loss of the prediction function using any engine that outputs a predictive distribution for the loss given an input. A simple split-calibration step turns this function into a distribution-free interpretable score that is comparable across inputs and can be read as an upper loss level. The score is useful on its own for ranking, and it can optionally be thresholded to obtain a transparent flagging rule with distribution-free control of large-loss events. Experiments across 13 regression benchmarks show that Locus yields effective risk ranking and reduces large-loss frequency compared to standard heuristics.

顶级标签: model evaluation machine learning theory
详细标签: risk assessment loss prediction distribution-free reliability score calibration 或 搜索:

LOCUS:一种用于风险感知预测的无分布损失分位数评分 / LOCUS: A Distribution-Free Loss-Quantile Score for Risk-Aware Predictions


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种名为LOCUS的无分布评分方法,它能为机器学习模型的每个预测生成一个可靠的风险分数,用于有效识别和减少可能导致高代价错误的预测,从而提升模型部署的安全性。

源自 arXiv: 2603.01971