推广简单模型:用于事件日志预测的集成方法 / Promoting Simple Agents: Ensemble Methods for Event-Log Prediction
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文发现,在处理流式事件日志中的下一步活动预测时,简单的n-gram模型在准确率上能与复杂的LSTM和Transformer等神经网络模型相媲美,且资源消耗更少;同时提出了一种名为“推广算法”的轻量级集成方法,通过动态选择两个模型来减少计算开销,从而在保证性能的同时实现更高效的预测。
We compare lightweight automata-based models (n-grams) with neural architectures (LSTM, Transformer) for next-activity prediction in streaming event logs. Experiments on synthetic patterns and five real-world process mining datasets show that n-grams with appropriate context windows achieve comparable accuracy to neural models while requiring substantially fewer resources. Unlike windowed neural architectures, which show unstable performance patterns, n-grams provide stable and consistent accuracy. While we demonstrate that classical ensemble methods like voting improve n-gram performance, they require running many agents in parallel during inference, increasing memory consumption and latency. We propose an ensemble method, the promotion algorithm, that dynamically selects between two active models during inference, reducing overhead compared to classical voting schemes. On real-world datasets, these ensembles match or exceed the accuracy of non-windowed neural models with lower computational cost.
推广简单模型:用于事件日志预测的集成方法 / Promoting Simple Agents: Ensemble Methods for Event-Log Prediction
本文发现,在处理流式事件日志中的下一步活动预测时,简单的n-gram模型在准确率上能与复杂的LSTM和Transformer等神经网络模型相媲美,且资源消耗更少;同时提出了一种名为“推广算法”的轻量级集成方法,通过动态选择两个模型来减少计算开销,从而在保证性能的同时实现更高效的预测。
源自 arXiv: 2604.21629