VMU-Diff:一种由粗到细的多源数据融合降水临近预报框架 / VMU-Diff: A Coarse-to-fine Multi-source Data Fusion Framework for Precipitation Nowcasting
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种名为VMU-Diff的降水临近预报框架,它通过先使用雷达和卫星数据预测整体运动趋势(粗阶段),再借助扩散模型补充精细细节(细阶段),解决了传统方法预测模糊或产生虚假噪声的问题,在短期预报上效果显著优于现有技术。
Precipitation nowcasting is a vital spatio-temporal prediction task for meteorological applications but faces challenges due to the chaotic property of precipitation systems. Existing methods predominantly rely on single-source radar data to build either deterministic or probabilistic models for extrapolation. However, the single deterministic model suffers from blurring due to MSE convergence. The single probabilistic model, typically represented by diffusion models, can generate fine details but suffers from spurious artifacts that compromise accuracy and computational inefficiency. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel coarse-to-fine Vision Mamba Unet and residual Diffusion (VMU-Diff) based precipitation nowcasting framework. It realizes precipitation nowcasting through a two-stage process, i.e., a deterministic model-based coarse stage to predict global motion trends and a probabilistic model-based fine stage to generate fine prediction details. In the coarse prediction stage, rather than single-source radar data, both radar and multi-band satellite data are taken as input. A spatial-temporal attention block and several Vision mamba state-space blocks realize multi-source data fusion, and predict the future echo global dynamics. The fine-grained stage is realized by a spatio-temporal refine generator based on residual conditional diffusion models. It first obtains spatio-temporal residual features based on coarse prediction and ground truth, and further reconstructs the residual via conditional Mamba state-space module. Experiments on Jiangsu SWAN datasets demonstrate the improvements of our method over state-of-the-art methods, particularly in short-term forecasts.
VMU-Diff:一种由粗到细的多源数据融合降水临近预报框架 / VMU-Diff: A Coarse-to-fine Multi-source Data Fusion Framework for Precipitation Nowcasting
本文提出了一种名为VMU-Diff的降水临近预报框架,它通过先使用雷达和卫星数据预测整体运动趋势(粗阶段),再借助扩散模型补充精细细节(细阶段),解决了传统方法预测模糊或产生虚假噪声的问题,在短期预报上效果显著优于现有技术。
源自 arXiv: 2605.14597