迷失在折叠中:当交叉验证不是用于不确定性估计的深度集成时 / Lost in the Folds: When Cross-Validation Is Not a Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Estimation
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文指出在医学图像分割中,很多研究错误地将K折交叉验证产生的模型集合称为“深度集成”,并证明这两者在不确定性估计上表现不同——深度集成更适合可靠性任务(如失败检测),而交叉验证集成更能反映标注者之间的分歧。
Ensemble disagreement is widely used as a proxy for epistemic uncertainty in medical image segmentation. In practice, many studies form ensembles via K-fold cross-validation (CV), yet refer to them as ``deep ensembles'' (DE). Because CV members are trained on different data subsets, their disagreement mixes seed-driven variability with data-exposure effects, which can change how uncertainty should be interpreted. We audit recent segmentation uncertainty studies and find that terminology--implementation mismatches are common. We then compare a standard 5-fold CV ensemble to a 5-member DE (fixed training set, different random seeds) under otherwise identical configurations on three multi-rater segmentation datasets spanning three modalities. We evaluate uncertainty for calibration, failure detection, ambiguity modeling, and robustness under distribution shift. DE match segmentation accuracy while improving calibration and failure detection, whereas CV ensembles sometimes correlate more strongly with inter-rater variability on the studied datasets. Thus, ensemble construction should be chosen to match the research question: DE for reliability-oriented use (e.g., selective referral/failure detection) and CV ensembles as a proxy for ambiguity. We provide a lightweight nnU-Net modification enabling DE training within the default pipeline.
迷失在折叠中:当交叉验证不是用于不确定性估计的深度集成时 / Lost in the Folds: When Cross-Validation Is Not a Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Estimation
本文指出在医学图像分割中,很多研究错误地将K折交叉验证产生的模型集合称为“深度集成”,并证明这两者在不确定性估计上表现不同——深度集成更适合可靠性任务(如失败检测),而交叉验证集成更能反映标注者之间的分歧。
源自 arXiv: 2605.18329