概率残差:面向概率时间序列预测的波动率学习方法 / ProbRes: Volatility Learning for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种名为“概率残差”的通用方法,它能学习数据中的波动规律(如金融市场的价格波动),并据此生成更可靠的概率预测,从而帮助量化未来不确定性,适用于单变量和多变量时间序列分析。
Probabilistic time series forecasting has attracted increasing attention in financial applications due to the need to quantify risk and uncertainty in future observations. We propose ProbRes, a post-hoc probabilistic calibration method that explicitly learns and incorporates volatility dynamics into probabilistic forecasting, enabling effective handling of heteroskedastic data. During training, ProbRes employs two architecture-agnostic modules to separately model the conditional mean and conditional volatility. At the inference stage, it generates predictive distributions by resampling normalized residuals. ProbRes is applicable to both univariate and multivariate time series and remains robust under a wide range of error distributions, including non-Gaussian innovations with conditional heteroskedasticity. Theoretical results demonstrate ProbRes's validity and experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that ProbRes accurately captures predictive distributions and produces well-calibrated prediction intervals.
概率残差:面向概率时间序列预测的波动率学习方法 / ProbRes: Volatility Learning for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting
本文提出了一种名为“概率残差”的通用方法,它能学习数据中的波动规律(如金融市场的价格波动),并据此生成更可靠的概率预测,从而帮助量化未来不确定性,适用于单变量和多变量时间序列分析。
源自 arXiv: 2606.02117