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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-06-11
📄 Abstract - Interpretable Factor Decomposition for Decision Intelligence in Large-Scale Financial Markets: Evidence from China's A-Share Market

We present an interpretable machine learning pipeline to decompose Cross-Sectional Equity Return Predictability into auditable factor contribution. We apply an XGBoost model with TreeSHAP attribution and conduct stress testing on 3632 Chinese A-share stocks from 2009 until 2019. Using 60-month, rolling windows over 55 months of out-of-sample data, XGBoost obtains a mean AUC of 0.547 and +2.38%/month (Newey-West t = 5.94; Annualized Sharpe 2.23) long-short spread for the top vs bottom quintiles. This alpha is persistent after adjusting for the Carhart four-factor model (+2.31%/month; t = 7.48). SHAP Decomposition indicates that behavioral signals (turnover and momentum) account for 58.2% of predictive attribution compared to 10.7% for valuation ratios, on average, across 55 industry groups. Ablation analysis serves to cross-validate this ranking and provides evidence that SHAP and ablation diverge in a manner that highlights feature substitutability structure that is largely invisible to either method used in isolation.

顶级标签: machine learning financial model evaluation
详细标签: interpretability xgboost shap factor decomposition market predictability 或 搜索:

面向大规模金融市场决策智能的可解释因子分解:来自中国A股市场的证据 / Interpretable Factor Decomposition for Decision Intelligence in Large-Scale Financial Markets: Evidence from China's A-Share Market


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种结合XGBoost模型和TreeSHAP归因方法的可解释机器学习流程,能清晰分解出影响股票收益的关键因素;通过对2009年至2019年间3632只中国A股的分析发现,换手率和动量等行为信号对预测的贡献远大于估值比率,并且发现SHAP与消融分析会因因子间的可替代性而产生差异。

源自 arXiv: 2606.12843