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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-14
📄 Abstract - On the Burden of Achieving Fairness in Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions underlying split conformal calibration. First, we derive a conservation law and lower bound showing that pooled calibration incurs irreducible group-wise coverage distortion at a scale set by cross-group quantile heterogeneity. Second, we demonstrate that the two leading fairness definitions for conformal prediction, Equalized Coverage and Equalized Set Size, are fundamentally in tension. Third, we quantify the cost of moving between policies which treat groups separately or pool them. Experiments on synthetic and real data confirm the same bidirectional trade-off after finite-sample calibration. Our results show that, for the policy families studied here, calibration choice does not remove cross-group heterogeneity; it determines whether the resulting distortion appears in the coverage or size dimension, providing a principled lens for analyzing fairness-oriented calibration choices in practice.

顶级标签: machine learning theory
详细标签: conformal prediction fairness calibration coverage heterogeneity 或 搜索:

论在共形预测中实现公平性的代价 / On the Burden of Achieving Fairness in Conformal Prediction


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文揭示了共形预测中常用单一阈值校准会导致不同群体之间的覆盖率差异,并发现同时实现‘群体覆盖率相等’和‘群体预测集大小相等’这两种公平性目标本质上不可兼得,从而量化了选择不同校准策略时必须付出的代价。

源自 arXiv: 2605.14260